◠The world will enter a recession, but China’s 2001 Nobel laureate in economics, Professor Columbia Stiglitz
â— As long as the economic policy is right, China will not experience economic recession. Zhou Qiren, dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University and professor of economics.
â— There is still a lot of room in the domestic market. Wang Jinxi, chairman of the China Lighting Society, who has no problem during this difficult period.
â— I don't think the lighting industry is coming in winter. I think the spring of the lighting industry has come to the chairman of Oupu Wang Yaohai.
Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council said at the beginning of this year that this year is probably the most difficult year for the Chinese economy. The RMB exchange rate, raw materials, energy and labor costs have risen. The US financial crisis has caused China's virtual economy and the real economy to be damaged to varying degrees, especially as the manufacturing industry dominated by the national economy. In this economic earthquake, the lighting industry has not been spared. Many companies have shrunk sales, profits have fallen, business pressures have increased, and some small companies have struggled to survive. As a result, many people in the lighting industry are depressed, and they are overwhelmed by the cold current in the industry. Others think that the opportunity of industry shuffling will come, and the lighting industry after the cold will fall. However, these are speculations. In the wave of the international economy and the domestic economic environment, many speculations can only play an expected role in the economic sense. Although these expectations may affect investment and consumption behavior, it cannot Represents the economic operation itself. This year is coming to an end, what kind of next year will the lighting industry face? This is the issue that everyone is most concerned about, so that we can prepare accordingly. To this end, we must first have an accurate understanding of the macro economy, and then analyze the market reaction of the lighting industry this year, in order to understand the mainstream trend of the lighting industry.
The macro economy is bound to go well
The current domestic and international economic situation is already clear. Both investors and consumers can see that the EU and the US economy are both declining. China’s export trade has been severely frustrated, and domestic investment and consumption are shrinking. Enterprises have closed down, and central and local governments have introduced policies to save the economy. The corporate world is over the winter, and what is more interesting is what will happen next year? Zhong Wei, director of the Economic Research Center of Beijing Normal University, believes that China’s economic growth is 17 to 18 months behind the US, which means that the second quarter of next year will be The most difficult moment of the Chinese economy. In this regard, the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that it is necessary to maintain stable and rapid economic development as the primary task of economic work next year.
It must be noted that the Chinese economy has maintained its vitality for growth. There are also two reasons for this: First, the relative independence of China's economy, China's huge domestic market, and China's financial system are not fully integrated with the European and American financial systems. According to Stiglitz, China is not yet complete. The market economy country, so he said that he would not worry about China, so that the Chinese economy can be immune to a certain degree. Second, the Chinese government responded quickly and adopted a series of measures to stimulate economic growth. Some measures have been implemented. The positive policies adopted were highly valued. World Bank President Zoellick pointed out that China's economic policy is very sensible. The huge foreign exchange reserves accumulated by China make China's ability to withstand the financial crisis stronger than any other country. It has the conditions to implement expansionary economic policies at the moment of the financial crisis. Therefore, it plays a role in ensuring a stable economic development. Michael Ferroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, said that the 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan is expected to return to double-digit economic growth next year. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, predicts that China's economic growth rate will be between 8% and 9% next year. Li Jianwei, director of the Macro Department Research Office of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said: China's economic growth forecast for next year is 8.4%, which is basically the bottom. The government is also planning measures to deal with the economic growth decline. It is also possible to guarantee 9%. Wang Tongsan, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, said that China’s GDP growth forecast for 2009 is around 9%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that China's economic growth will slow down this year and next, but the growth rate is still expected to reach 9.7% and 9.3% respectively.
The most important question now is what will happen next year for the majority of companies. On this issue, many government officials, business people and economic experts have said that it will be more difficult next year, especially in the first half of the year. However, the understanding of this difficulty should be comprehensive. It may have different degrees of impact on different industries and different enterprises, and it cannot be generalized. Some of these difficulties are difficult to resolve, and some difficulties can be overcome. Enterprises cannot be bound by difficulties.
In fact, in the face of various unfavorable factors at home and abroad, it may be more of an emotional impact. This sentiment leads to pessimistic expectations of investors and consumers about the economic outlook, which directly affects the expansion of investment and consumption. Therefore, in this difficult period, the most important thing for the operators of the lighting industry is to overcome negative emotions and build confidence. I believe that objective difficulties are temporary. I believe that national policies are effective and believe that they can get out of the predicament. In the face of reports of the collapse of a large number of enterprises in Guangdong Province, Yang Jianchu, director of the Guangdong Provincial Economic and Trade Commission, called on all parties to objectively judge the economic situation, overcome the panic mentality, rationally treat market changes, and enhance the confidence of enterprises in overcoming difficulties. Wen Jiabao stressed: In the face of economic difficulties, confidence is more important than gold and currency. Therefore, the recent intensive policy measures aimed at changing the society’s pessimistic expectations of the economy, restoring and boosting confidence, together with the consumption of investment, will expand the demand for light goods, textiles, automobiles and other consumer goods. It can inject new vitality into the national economy.
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