The market is about to break through 100 billion, and it has undergone a round of integration, but the dilemma of the LED lighting industry “increasing revenue without increasing profits†still exists.
At the Hi-Tech Research and Development Industry Investment Strategy Meeting held on February 19th, Zhang Hongbiao, director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, believes that the LED lighting industry will enter a new round of gold this year. He told the "First Financial Daily" reporter yesterday that the cost performance of LED lighting has reached the critical point of market popularity, and with the large-scale elimination of incandescent lamps, the market size of China's LED indoor and outdoor lighting will be expected to exceed 100 billion yuan for the first time this year.
Following the acquisition of NVC by Dehao Runda and Sanan Optoelectronics, the recent share of Tongfang (600100.SH) is preparing to acquire Zhen Mingli (01868.HK). This year, the integration of LED industry will be greater than last year. Before and after the Spring Festival this year, the domestic LED chip leader Sanan Optoelectronics completed the issuance, and plans to double the LED chip production capacity. It is expected that some small chip factories will be squeezed out.
Zhang Hongbiao expects that the upstream acceleration of the survival of the fittest, the expansion of downstream lighting demand, and the acceleration of industry mergers and acquisitions will be the three major points of view and investment opportunities for the LED lighting industry in 2014.
Indoor lighting demand continues to expand
With the price drop and quality improvement, LED lighting has begun to enter the homes of ordinary people.
"The cost performance of LED lighting has been accepted by the market, resulting in actual demand, without relying on the government. The elimination of incandescent lamps has played a role in promoting." Zhang Hongbiao said that last year reached a critical point, this year is more obvious, the market will develop rapidly.
In the past two years, the price of LED lighting has fallen by 60% to 80%. This year, prices will continue to fall, but the decline will narrow. At present, low-end LED lights are cheaper than energy-saving lamps.
According to the research data of Gaogong LED, the domestic LED application market reached 208.1 billion yuan last year, of which indoor lighting accounted for 30%; by 2015, the proportion of indoor lighting will further increase to 41%. Indoor lighting has become one of the biggest thrusts in the growth of China's LED application market.
The large-scale elimination of incandescent lamps in various countries has promoted the application of LEDs in indoor lighting. Zhang Xiaofei, dean of the High-tech Industry Research Institute, estimates that the replacement demand for 500 million to 1 billion incandescent lamps in the world will be calculated from a LED bulb of 3 to 5 US dollars.
Therefore, the export of LED lighting in China is also growing rapidly. Zhang Hongbiao revealed that for the first time last year, China’s LED lighting exports exceeded 1 billion yuan. There were 50 Chinese companies with LED lighting exports exceeding 100 million yuan last year, and it is expected to exceed 100 this year. Last year, there were 500 Chinese enterprises with LED lighting exports exceeding 10 million yuan, and it is expected to reach more than 800 this year.
Industry consolidation wave is more ferocious
At present, there are 1,500 LED packaging companies and 13,000 LED application companies in China. Due to fierce competition and falling prices, the LED industry experienced a phenomenon of “increasing revenues without increasing profits†last year. Can this situation change this year in the golden period?
"This will happen this year, but it will improve." Zhang Hongbiao believes that at the same time, industry consolidation is accelerating: the market is getting hotter, and companies that have not had time to increase supply will go to the acquisition; some projects that were purchased last year will also land this year.
Before the Spring Festival, Tongfang shares announced that it plans to acquire a 51% stake in Zhen Mingli for 700 million yuan. This is the same as Dehao Runda's merger with NVC lighting. Zhang Xiaofei believes that only Dehao Runda is looking at the channel of NVC in China, and Tongfang’s shares are in the channel of Zhen Mingli’s overseas.
Headquartered in Jiangmen City, Guangdong Province, Zhen Mingli is a major exporter of LED lighting and once accounted for 50% of the global LED lighting market. Zhang Xiaofei told the reporter of the "First Financial Daily" that Tongfang had invested heavily in LED chips in the past, and now it is buying the real bright, in order to open up the downstream "seaport."
And Sanan Optoelectronics successfully completed a new round of additional issuance around the Spring Festival this year, raising 3.3 billion yuan, intending to double the current LED chip production capacity. Zhang Xiaofei believes that on the one hand, market demand is pulling, on the other hand, Sanan also wants to squeeze out small businesses.
Zhang Hongbiao expects that there will be mergers and acquisitions of LEDs in the middle, middle and lower reaches of this year. Listed companies and state-owned enterprises will be the main players.
The LED chip is weak and strong. At present, there are more than 50 LED chip companies in the country. As large enterprises continue to expand, small enterprises face operational pressure. Last year, Dalian Lumei and Sapphire have withdrawn from the LED chip industry.
Excess risk of sapphire
At the same time as the rapid development of LED, the supporting concept such as sapphire substrate is also affected by the rumors that Apple's next-generation mobile phone IPhone6 ​​will use, which has ignited a boom in the capital market. However, Zhang Xiaofei said in an interview with this reporter that sapphire is still in the introduction stage and is not used in batches.
According to the preliminary statistics of the High-tech LED Research Institute, the industry scale of China's LED sapphire substrate will grow from less than 1.5 billion yuan in 2013 to about 2 billion yuan in 2014. Zhang Hongbiao expects that LED sapphire substrate will have 23 million domestic products last year, and domestic supply will exceed half. This year's demand will reach 33 million, and domestic supply will rise to 65%~70%.
Despite this, the domestic sapphire capacity is still excessive. Zhang Hongbiao revealed that the current domestic production capacity of sapphire substrates is 80 million pieces, and will expand to hundreds of millions of pieces by the end of 2014, exceeding the total demand of 33 million pieces.
"Sapphire is only a concept for smartphones." Zhang Hongbiao said that once Apple is applied, other brands of high-end phones will also be applied. "This is both an opportunity and a risk." He said that whether Apple will apply, whether domestic sapphire companies can provide applicable products, or whether mobile phone companies accept it, they must draw a question mark.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
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