China, one of the earliest countries to embrace new energy vehicles, has consistently prioritized sustainable development for both society and the environment. Through strong and long-term policies, the nation has actively promoted the growth of the hydrogen fuel cell industry. At the 5th China-Korea Automotive Industry Development Seminar held on November 2nd this year, Xu Changming, deputy director of the National Information Center, stated that new energy vehicles are expected to experience a significant leap forward after 2020, marking a qualitative shift in the sector.
The seminar, themed “Future Automobile,†continued the high standards set by its previous four editions. It brought together top experts from both China and South Korea, focusing on cutting-edge topics such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, new energy technologies, intelligent vehicle networking, and autonomous driving. The discussions were deep and insightful, reflecting the growing importance of these innovations in shaping the automotive landscape.
During the event, Xu Changming predicted that China’s future automobile market would expand by an additional 50% compared to current levels. His reasoning was based on a simple mathematical relationship: the number of vehicles in ownership divided by the average retirement period (15 years) gives the annual sales volume. With a target of around 400 cars per 1,000 people, and a population of nearly 1.5 billion, total car ownership could reach 600 million. Divided by 15 years, this would result in annual sales of 40 million—representing a 50% increase from current levels.
With such a massive market, new energy vehicles are set to play a central role. Xu emphasized that after 2020, the sector will see a qualitative expansion. He noted that China’s enormous demand for automobiles necessitates a strong push toward new energy solutions. The development of these vehicles involves multiple considerations, including the desire of the Ministry of Science and Technology to enable domestic brands to overtake international competitors. This led to the formulation of new energy policies during a time when domestic brands faced challenges from foreign joint ventures.
To support this transition, the government has implemented various measures, including subsidies, purchase restrictions, and the dual-credit policy. While subsidies have gradually declined, purchase restrictions continue to favor new energy vehicles. In Beijing, for example, the success rate for traditional fuel vehicle purchases is about 800:1, while new energy vehicles are almost guaranteed approval. Combined with direct interventions in public transport and logistics, Xu predicts that new energy vehicle sales could reach nearly 1 million units.
The dual-credit policy also plays a key role, encouraging automakers to invest in new energy vehicles. Companies producing traditional vehicles must offset their emissions by supporting green alternatives, creating a financial incentive for the industry. This approach is more powerful than direct subsidies, as it drives long-term change within the market.
Xu believes that although subsidies will eventually phase out, the introduction of the dual-credit policy will create stronger market drivers. Currently, the new energy vehicle market is heavily influenced by policy, but by 2025, it is expected to become more market-driven—a shift that he considers the most effective path forward.
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