Although the LED industry faced many development bottlenecks in 2012 and even shuffled on a large scale, the future development trend is still positive. Analysts of LEDinside, a research department of TrendForce, a global market research organization, based in Shenzhen sorted out trends in China and the global LED industry, providing in-depth analysis from the top ten aspects of LED patents, industrial reshuffle, chip overcapacity, major factory consolidation, and innovative talents.
Trend 1: Some LED patents expire, and LED packaging companies may welcome new opportunities
Currently, technology patents in the global LED industry have been firmly in the hands of Cree, Philips, Osram, Nichia Chemical and Toyota Synthesizer. These five major manufacturers have applied for a number of patents covering the entire industry chain covering raw materials, equipment, packaging, and applications. However, LEDinside observed that such patent walls have already shown signs of loosening. According to the provisions of the Patent Law, the protection period for invention patents is 20 years, and the protection period for utility model patents and design patents is 10 years, that is, the LED-related patents that have been proposed since 1990 have gradually expired from 2010, and this A considerable part of them also involves important white LEDs. In the next 2 to 3 years, a number of core patents of the 1990s will expire one after another. In addition, related patents related to phosphors will also gradually expire in 2012-2014.
However, with the Chinese market company's "copycat version" patents also burying hidden dangers, after careful study, most of the patents are not original, or they are picking up wisdom, and some repairs are based on the original patents of international LED giants, or they are opportunistic Utility models or design circles, once encountering global lawsuits triggered by international giants, more than 70% of patents in the Chinese market may become invalid.
Trend 2: LED lighting products have greater visibility in the general lighting market
LEDinside believes that the penetration rate of the LED lighting market will accelerate in 2013, due to the obvious impact of factors such as the decline in the price of LED lighting products, the maturity of technology, and the increase in market awareness of LED lighting products. Originally, when traditional lighting manufacturers developed new products, they began to introduce a large number of LED light sources to replace traditional light source products. Therefore, in the next two years, the penetration rate of LED lighting products in the general lighting market will increase rapidly, and penetrate into various lighting fields.
Trend 3: China's market failure and shuffle will be more
2013 is hailed as an important year for the expansion of the Chinese LED market. LEDinside predicts that the penetration rate of LED downlights and spotlights in the mainland market will exceed 30%, and the sales of the LED lighting industry may reach 1 billion yuan, but for excessive expansion For the LED industry, it is difficult for manufacturers to benefit from the oversupply of production capacity.
Especially in the past few years, because of the large number of Chinese LED epitaxial manufacturers established by government subsidies, LEDinside estimates that there will be fewer than 30 LED epitaxy factories in China in the next few years. Although mainland China's local MOCVD equipment manufacturers are also catching up, hoping to attack the MOCVD equipment market monopolized by foreign companies, but due to the large-scale shutdown of imported MOCVD equipment, these localized brand MOCVD equipment are difficult to show the stage; In addition, the strength gap of LED companies has gradually emerged. With the expansion of more large-scale LED packaging companies, some small and medium-sized packaging factories in the mainland with poor health will also face the crisis of failure.
Trend 4: LED chip prices keep falling, supply chain structure profits shrink
LEDinside believes that due to the growth in demand for handheld devices and LED lighting products, the global LED output value will reach US $ 12.4 billion in 2013, a 12% increase from 2012, but the overall LED industry's oversupply cannot be resolved in the short term.
The hot investment of companies outside the Chinese market in the Chinese LED industry chain and the continued ordering of MOCVD will undoubtedly increase the output and inventory of LED chips. In order to obtain benefits, the company will further reduce chip prices and implement a new round of price wars. Manufacturers The profit margin will also be further reduced. According to the latest market statistics, compared with the beginning of 2012, the price of LED upstream sapphire substrates and chips has dropped by more than one-third so far. The situation of China's LED structural overcapacity will continue in mid-2013, LED chip prices will further decline, the profitability of midstream and upstream companies will be reduced, and excess capacity will also promote the structural integration of the LED supply chain. Or infiltrate downstream for vertical and vertical integration.
Trend 5: lack of innovative talents, digging corners into shortcuts
LED epitaxial chips and other upstream talents in the industry chain are the most deficient. Taking MOCVD equipment as an example, the two companies VEECO and AIXTRON of Germany account for 90% to 95% of the global market share. Although Japanese equipment is also more advanced, it is basically for domestic use and rarely exported. Many mainland companies do not understand the actual situation, thinking that with the equipment, they can be directly put into production. After spending a lot of money to purchase equipment from the United States and Germany, it was discovered that there was a lack of knowledgeable and truly experienced personnel to debug and operate the equipment. It is not uncommon for these companies to have to dig up high salaries from companies in Taiwan and South Korea to relieve their urgent needs.
For the majority of companies, it is no exception to introduce talents by digging angles in order to solve the urgent need, but it must have a long-term perspective and overcome the mentality of quick success and quick gains. If there is no innovative soil and environment, even if talent is dug from the outside, it will be difficult to survive , Will gradually wither.
Trend 6: Mainland LED industry chain integration is accelerating, the survivors are king
LEDinside believes that with the surplus of the LED packaging market and the upgrade of the mainland LED industry, it will inevitably cause some mainland companies to shift to the areas where Taiwanese companies are good at. It is estimated that Sanan Optoelectronics' LED chip production capacity will exceed that of Taiwan's leading chip maker Jingdian in 2013. Since 2013, Taiwanese companies have deeply felt the threat of mainland companies; before Sanan became a shareholder, Ronda and Power Alliance, or Guangzhou Ga and Jingdian, have also realized that mainland LED companies will inevitably erode Taiwan. Department of the company, and make preparations in advance. At the same time, Taiwan-funded companies are also actively setting up joint ventures in the mainland, hoping to capitalize on the advantages of mainland capital and market capacity to expand their market share and profits.
LEDinside pointed out that considering the advantages of the mainland ’s vast LED commercial and outdoor lighting applications and the advantages of Taiwan ’s technology and standards, the focus of the LED industry ’s integration will not exclude Taiwan ’s LED epitaxial manufacturers or LED lamp manufacturers from the mainland LED company merger.
Trend 7: Industrial transfer, foreign companies cannibalizing whale swallowing, local fighting
The huge potential of the mainland market has attracted more and more international LED giants to turn their attention to China. They have adjusted their strategies and stepped up their layout in China, shifting their industries to China and increasing their efforts to develop the Chinese market. For example, Osram has built an LED chip housing packaging factory in Wuxi, Philips has established Philips professional lighting and demonstration parks in Chengdu, and GE has established its first customer collaborative innovation center in Northwest China.
As far as the Chinese market in China is concerned, the LED industry is also staged a gradient shift migration movement. If Leigu moved to Huizhou base, NVC moved its headquarters from Huizhou to Chongqing.
LEDinside believes that from the migration and development plans of the above LED international or Chinese market giants, it can be seen that 2013 is still a year of industrial transfer. Benefiting from China's policy support and preferential policies announced by various localities, coupled with China's huge market, relatively low production and labor cost advantages, is also one of the tempting factors for foreign companies to increase investment in China. Compared with LED companies in mainland China, due to the significant increase in production costs in coastal areas in recent years, with the rise of the mainland LED market and more tempting local investment policies, the overall LED industry spatial distribution development will be staged along the coast. Gradient transfer to the mainland.
Trend 8: The light effect competition continues, and it is estimated that the volume of products in 2013 will fall from 160lm / W to 180lm / W
The light effect competition has always been a war that various manufacturers cannot lose. Cree's invincibility in the lighting market relies on the ability to continuously refresh the light effect record in technology. In 2012, it was not easy for these manufacturers to catch up with each other, but widened the gap. And the emergence of GaN homoepitaxial, there are plans to overtake on the curve in brightness. Although Seoul Semiconductor released the news that the luminous flux of a single chip of nPola reached 500lm, it has never been able to tell what the input power is, which has caused a lot of fantasies about its light efficiency. And its substrate supplier Mitsubishi itself became the first customer of this product, almost self-produced and sold.
The light effect competition in 2013 will continue, but what can be successfully mass-produced in the market is still the main spindle of 2013 with 160lm / W up and down.
Trend 9: "GaN-on-Si" is still the focus of attention, nPSS has become a new hot
In 2013, which technologies can really enter the center of the stage and determine the pace of technological progress in the entire industry? LEDinside believes that "GaN-on-Si" substrates are still the focus of the market, and nPSS may become a new hot spot, and there is a wide range of remote phosphors.
In terms of substrate materials, silicon substrates are likely to change from theoretical threats in the past few years to realistic challenges. Toshiba announced on December 14, 2012 that it has developed a white GaN-on-Si for LED lighting ( (GaN-on-silicon) LED chips "TL1F1 series (1W)", and mass production will start at the scale of 10 million units per month from late December. Not surprisingly, the market share of GaN-on-Si LEDs may enter single-digit percentages in 2013. At that time, another technical competition will be launched with mainstream sapphire substrates or SiC substrates.
Trend ten: countries accelerate the process of industrial standardization, 2013 will form the LED standard year
In the past few years, various countries have announced LED industry certifications and standards, and established industry alliance institutions to regulate industrial development and bring the chaotic LED industry to the right track as soon as possible.
The European Union has regulations on ecological design requirements (EU) No 1194/2012 for directional lights, LED lights and related equipment, as well as ENEC (European Standard Electrical Approval), which is specific to products that comply with European standards (such as lighting equipment, components, and Office & data equipment) The general mark of European safety certification used.
In North America, various test standards related to LED products have been continuously updated, including IES LM-79 "Electrical and Brightness Measurement of Solid State Lighting Products", IES LM-80 "Measurement of LED Light Source Lumen Maintenance" and IES TM-21 "Long-Term Lumen Maintenance Rate Measurement of LED Light Sources", and the latest IES LM-82 "Identification of Electrical and Brightness Performance of LED Light Engines (as a function of temperature)", etc. In addition, it also includes provisions for the safety standards of LED products UL certification. In addition, the Energy Star Energy Conservation Program, jointly promoted by the US Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency, is also a very important LED product related certification, which has been adopted in many regions such as Australia, Canada, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and the European Union. In addition to various certification standards, the US government has also launched important layouts such as the "National Semiconductor Lighting Research Program" and the "Next Generation Lighting Program (NGLI)".
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan stipulates that from July 1, 2012, LED bulbs and LED lamps entering the Japanese market must be affixed with a round PSE logo.
China has also released the "Technical Requirements for Energy-Saving Evaluation of Semiconductor Lighting Applications (2012 Edition)", which includes the technical requirements for energy-saving evaluation of LED lighting products such as roads, tunnel lamps and indoor lamps, as well as LEDs in airports, railway stations, urban rail transit and other places Lighting engineering technical requirements and other content.
Various countries and regions are accelerating the pace of LED industry standardization, and intend to standardize the quality and performance of LED products through the formulation of various certifications and requirements to prevent disorderly competition from causing quality confusion. LEDinside hopes that the establishment of various industrial alliances will lead and standardize the LED market and companies, solve key technical and common problems, and promote industrial development.
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