Before the suspension of electric vehicle (EV) production licenses by the state, officials believed that the EV industry would face greater challenges in the near future. With a surge of electric vehicles entering the market and uncontrolled production, the sector had begun to disrupt the overall market order. This prompted the government to take a more cautious approach.
On November 14th, reports surfaced indicating that the Chinese government is considering resuming the approval of EV production licenses. This move could open the door for global players like Ford and Tesla, as well as domestic automakers, to expand their presence in the EV market. According to sources, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has been evaluating the current overcapacity in the EV sector. It's expected that the process for issuing these licenses will restart as early as the first half of next year.
Earlier this year, the NDRC suspended the issuance of EV production licenses to manage rapid capacity expansion. Analysts estimate that over 2 million new energy vehicles are expected to be added annually, prompting regulators to reassess the industry's growth. While the NDRC has not officially commented on the potential resumption of licenses, it has stated that the current licensing framework is under review, with plans to raise the bar for new entrants.
Since March 2016, 15 EV manufacturing licenses have been issued in China. Companies such as Wanxiang Group and joint ventures between Volkswagen and local manufacturers are among the recipients. This has spurred increased competition within the automotive industry, leading even companies from unrelated sectors—like smart TV and air conditioner manufacturers—to explore entry into the EV market.
For foreign automakers like Ford and Tesla, the Chinese market represents a significant opportunity. Ford, in partnership with Anhui Zhongtai Automobile Co., Ltd., is planning to build a factory capable of producing 100,000 pure electric passenger cars annually. Meanwhile, Tesla has reportedly reached a preliminary agreement with the Shanghai government to produce locally. CEO Elon Musk recently mentioned that full-scale production in China is still about three years away.
The licensing system is also a key part of China’s strategy to regulate the world’s largest new energy vehicle market. Last week, the government announced that it will pilot a policy allowing foreign automakers to establish wholly-owned EV factories in free trade zones before June 2024. Starting in 2019, most automakers will need to meet new energy vehicle (NEV) quotas, or face penalties if they fail to comply.
With strong government support, China overtook the U.S. in 2015 to become the world’s largest new energy vehicle market, covering all types of electric and hybrid vehicles. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, nearly 507,000 new energy vehicles were sold nationwide last year. The country has also halted the expansion of traditional gasoline vehicle production, aiming to reach 2 million annual sales of new energy vehicles by 2020.
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