According to the latest report released by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch (hereinafter referred to as the Silicon Industry Branch), China's polysilicon imports in November 2016 increased significantly to 13,584 tons, an increase of 56.5% from the previous month and an increase of 35.5% from the same period last year. As of November 2016, the cumulative import volume reached 125,798 tons, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year, and the monthly average import volume was 11,436 tons.
According to the analysis of the Silicon Industry Branch, as one of the main reasons for the surge in polysilicon imports in November: China imported polysilicon from South Korea to a record high. At the same time, on November 22, 2016, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China issued the No. 71 announcement in 2016, officially announcing that anti-dumping measures will be applied to imported solar grade polysilicon originating in South Korea according to the application submitted by domestic industry applicants. Conduct an interim review.
Before the review
Korean polysilicon rushed to China
According to the data reported by the Silicon Industry Branch, China's imports from South Korea reached 8,366 tons in November 2016, a substantial increase of 63.7% from the previous month, and the proportion of total imports reached an unprecedented 61.6%. In January-November 2016, the cumulative import volume from South Korea was 62,947 tons, accounting for 50.0% of the total total import volume, still ranking first in the import volume.
The industry believes that the monthly import volume from South Korea increased sharply in November 2016. On the one hand, the downstream demand in November was warmer than that in October, and the demand for imported materials increased. Therefore, the Korean silicon material plant was weak due to demand before October. The backlog of inventories flooded into the domestic market in November.
On the other hand, the Korean silicon material plant was affected by the mid-term review of the Korean polysilicon period. It set up a trading company in China in advance and cleared the customs in advance to export a large amount of production and inventory to the Chinese market before the ruling. “This is because the Ministry of Commerce of China is conducting an interim review of the anti-dumping measures applicable to imported solar grade polysilicon originating in South Korea according to the application submitted by domestic industry applicants.†An industry insider told the Securities Daily reporter. “The mid-term review is expected to increase the anti-dumping tax rate of Korean polysilicon. Therefore, they hope to clear the inventory and make a surprise shot before reviewing the ruling.â€
This means that since January 20, 2014, China's policy of imposing anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon originating in South Korea is expected to be adjusted according to the actual dumping margin of South Korea's exports of polysilicon to China through mid-term review.
Since 2008, the domestic polysilicon industry has been severely affected by dumped imports from the United States and South Korea. By the end of 2011, due to the substantial increase in the number of dumped imports and the continuous decline in import prices, domestic polysilicon enterprises were in serious difficulties of large-scale production suspension. On July 20, 2012, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice to initiate an anti-dumping investigation. On January 20, 2014, the Ministry of Commerce issued the “Announcement on the Final Determination of Imported Solar-Grade Polysilicon Anti-Dumping Investigations Originating in the United States and South Koreaâ€, ruling that the products under investigation in the United States and South Korea were dumped, and the domestic industry was subject to There is a causal relationship between the actual damage and the dumping and damage.
However, under the premise that China has implemented trade remedy measures for Korean polysilicon, the above data shows that Korean polysilicon dumping to China has not been affected at all.
Industry insiders told reporters that "after the implementation of anti-dumping measures, the situation of Korean polysilicon dumping imports has not been alleviated. This is because the tax rates of Korean polysilicon companies mainly dumped to China are too low."
According to the "Final Ruling", since January 20, 2014, China has imposed an anti-dumping duty of 2.4%-48.7% on products under investigation originating in South Korea. Among them, the anti-dumping tax rates applicable to South Korea's OCI Co., Ltd. and Korea Silicon Co., Ltd., which account for 90% of Korea's production capacity, are very low at 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively. An industry insider once told the "Securities Daily" reporter that "OCI, South Korea's silicon industry and other polysilicon companies are the background of large chemical groups, and its industrial status in South Korea is second only to large multinational groups such as Samsung and Hyundai Heavy Industries."
Polysilicon price trend is generally downward
Domestic production supply is guaranteed
Will China's mid-term review of anti-dumping measures applied to imported solar-grade polysilicon originating in South Korea affect the polysilicon market?
In terms of production capacity, according to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch, as of the end of 2016, the domestic polysilicon production enterprises have recovered from 13 at the end of 2015 to 17 with effective capacity of 208,000 tons/year. In 2016, domestic polysilicon production reached 193,000 tons. Significantly increased by 14.2%, a significant increase of 46.2% compared with 2014. In addition, China's polysilicon production capacity accounts for 45.7% of the world.
Specifically, in the first quarter of last year, China's polysilicon production was 49,000 tons, the second quarter output was 51,000 tons, the third quarter production was 47,000 tons, and the fourth quarter production was 46,000 tons. The second half of the year was 7% lower than the first half. The industry believes that this is also related to the decline in demand after the “6·30†rush to install. From September to November last year, domestic maintenance companies reached 8 in succession, and basically recovered to full production in December, creating a record high in domestic single-month production.
Capacity provides a guarantee for price stability. The latest statistics show that the domestic polysilicon market price fluctuated in December 2016. The average price at the beginning of the month was 132,000 yuan/ton, and the end of the month was 136,800 yuan/ton. The month-on-month increase was 3.66%, which was 21.59% higher than the same period in 2015. .
In this regard, the industry analysis, the main reasons for the rise in domestic polysilicon prices in December last year include: downstream battery packs, wafer manufacturers, the basic line of equipment, polysilicon raw materials orders are concentrated, polysilicon manufacturers in stock, general supply and demand, some polysilicon manufacturers in accordance with The pre-contract price is available.
The above-mentioned insiders believe that "in the long run, the industry believes that China's polysilicon prices are stable and weak, and the overall market is down in the future. The market supply is sufficient. In the future, China will not raise the price of polysilicon due to the tax increase imposed on Korea. On this basis, with the release of China's high-quality high-quality technology and production capacity, the proportion of low-cost and high-quality polysilicon will increase, supply will be guaranteed, and cheap raw materials will be provided for PV parity.
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